Youth Vote Has Huge Role in Kyrsten Sinema's and Ann Kirkpatrick's Congressional Districts

Categories: Election 2014
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This Election Day, young voters may have the most impact in two of Arizona's congressional districts.

The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), a think tank that studies youth voting habits, believe the districts currently occupied by Democratic Congresswomen Kyrsten Sinema (CD-9) and Ann Kirkpatrick (CD-1) are two of the four districts in the entire country where youth voting turnout should be watched most closely.

See also:
-Kyrsten Sinema Turns Blue Dog, Liberals Blow a Gasket
-GOP Ramps Up Campaigns Against Barber, Kirkpatrick, 18 Months Before Election

Young people between the ages of 18 and 29 are notorious for having lower voting turnout than older age groups, but there are a few factors that set up youth voters to play a more pivotal role in these two congressional districts in Arizona.

In Kirkpatrick's district -- where she'll face either Republican Gary Kiehne, Adam Kwasman, or Andy Tobin -- the race is expected to be very close. In the last two races, the margin of victory was less than the total number of young voters who cast a ballot.

In Sinema's district -- where Republicans Andrew Walter and Wendy Rogers are her potential challengers -- more than 25,000 young people voted in 2012, and Sinema won by about 10,000 votes. Young people make up a large share of that district, about 25 percent, and the existence of several college campuses in the district creates the potential for more young voters.

Peter Levine, the director of CIRCLE, tells New Times candidates of both parties in these races could benefit from targeting the youth vote..

"There is still a conventional wisdom among hard-nosed political consultants that says don't bother with the youth." he says. "Statistically, that's a mistake."

The other two districts CIRCLE says to watch for the youth vote are New York's 23rd Congressional District, and Iowa's Third Congressional District.

During the last midterm election, in 2010, youth voters in Arizona accounted for just 9 percent of the vote share, according to research from CIRCLE. Just two years later, during the presidential election, young voters represented 26 percent of the vote in the state.

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CIRCLE has also done research into why young people don't vote. When they surveyed those who didn't register, about 45 percent said they weren't interested -- which is similar reasoning given by older people who weren't registered to vote.

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They've also tried to find out why registered voters didn't vote in the last midterm election, and half of young people said they were either too busy or not interested, while only about 31 percent of people over 30 gave those answers:

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Got a tip? Send it to: Matthew Hendley.

Follow Valley Fever on Twitter at @ValleyFeverPHX.
Follow Matthew Hendley at @MatthewHendley.


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10 comments
thadboyd
thadboyd

I'm registered independent and voting Walter in the Republican primary.  If he gets the nomination, I'll probably vote for him in the general; if Rogers gets it (as seems likely) then I guess I'm going to have to grit my teeth and vote for Sinema.


I get that Sinema's a politician in a conservative state.  But I don't understand the battles she's picked.  She's criticized Obama when he's right and supported him when he's wrong.  Given that there was no political advantage to her vote in favor of the NSA's surveillance program, I have to assume that she genuinely supports it.

Christian Paul
Christian Paul

Would never vote for anti american radical marxist like sinema she is pelosi reincarnated

Mark Baumgardner
Mark Baumgardner

Probably the most important voting demographic...and one of the most powerful.

valleynative
valleynative topcommenter

In political jargon "youth vote" is code for "naive, and easily manipulated by sound bites".

Think about the sort of comments we see posted to New Times via Facebook.  Those are the "youth vote".


thadboyd
thadboyd

Pelosi's still alive, dude.

valleynative
valleynative topcommenter

@DonkeyHotay @valleynative 

They're actually a slightly different case.  They're usually older and have made up their minds and are mainly listening for confirmation of their own opinions.   They can be led in the general direction they're already headed,  but, unlike them, the "youth vote" can be told that "up is down", and if the slogan is catchy enough (eg, "Change"), they'll fall for it.


thadboyd
thadboyd

@valleynative @DonkeyHotay Yeah, you'd never catch a Fox News viewer believing a statement like "Up is down," "There is no scientific consensus on global warming," or "Evolution is a hoax."

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