ASU Research: Millennials Not Buying Houses in Phoenix Area

Categories: News
random-scottsdale-house.jpg
Dru Bloomfield via Flickr


There's been a lot of speculation from media types that Millennials can't or won't buy homes, and it seems to be turning out that way around here.

According to the monthly real estate report from Arizona State University's Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice, Millennials in the Phoenix area "are less engaged in home-buying than might be expected."

If you've read one of the dozens and dozens of reports on Millennials and home ownership, then you're aware that the bar wasn't all that high to begin with.

"This represents pent-up demand, but at the moment, the realized demand is much lower than expected," the ASU report states. "A larger percentage of the population than normal is choosing to rent, either because it fits their lifestyle or from financial necessity, having neither the credit history nor down payment needed for a home purchase. Indeed, competition for rentals is much stronger than competition for homes to buy. If it persists, this could lead to rent increases over the next two years."

They might be on to something with that part about "financial necessity." Check out some of the numbers we cherry-picked from this report about the people who are buying homes:

  • At the top end of the market sales of single family homes over $500,000 grew 21 percent over December 2012. Sales of single family homes below $150,000 fell 47 percent.

  • Luxury homes grew their market share from 21 percent to 25 percent of the dollars spent while the lowest-priced homes fell from 20 percent to 11 percent.

  • New home sales are showing the largest percentage price increase in all three measures over the last year. December's new home sales included a high percentage of active adult homes which tend to sport higher prices because of all the community facilities.

  • Newly constructed homes in Maricopa County during December were on average 31 percent larger in square feet of living space compared with the average for normal resales.

  • The percentage of residences in Maricopa County sold to owners from outside Arizona was 17.3 percent in December, rebounding from 16.1 percent in November but much lower than the 20.3 percent we saw in December 2012.

  • For some considerable time, cash purchases have been running at an unusually high level. In Maricopa County the percentage of properties recording an Affidavit of Value and purchased without financing was 25.7 percent in December 2013, significantly down from 35.5 percent in December 2012. We consider 7 percent to 12 percent the normal range for cash buyers.

  • In December 2013, 12.7 percet of all homes purchased with an Affidavit of Value in Greater Phoenix were to be owner-occupied but used as second or vacation homes.

Those lines might shed some light on why Millenials around here aren't the ones buying homes.

While it's not exactly a new revelation that Millenials aren't snatching up homes, the overall lower demand gets at one of the main points of the report: Home prices in Maricopa and Pinal counties probably aren't going up that much in 2014.

From the report:
It is already clear that 2014 will give us a much slower rate of appreciation than the furious pace we have witnessed during 2012 and 2013. We have been through enormous turbulence since 2002 and it will be a relief for many to be operating in a more balanced market. However if the current cooling trend that started in July continues for much longer, 2014 could easily see average and median home prices move a little lower than they were at the end of 2013.
Click here to read the entire monthly report.

Got a tip? Send it to: Matthew Hendley.

Follow Valley Fever on Twitter at @ValleyFeverPHX.
Follow Matthew Hendley at @MatthewHendley.


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92 comments
Michael Schilling
Michael Schilling

Why would millenials do anything that involved responsibility?

Cris Cross
Cris Cross

Cuz the banks are ripping everyone off

Angie Rivera
Angie Rivera

Ira Dalton Bohm-Sanchez Arizona a liberal beacon??? AAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Breathe... HAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! That was the best joke ever! Thanks for the morning laugh.

Tim Larkin
Tim Larkin

this is fine with me... keep out-- go to some where else, please

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

I am hoping so. Thanks for the encouragement. :)

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

Lets all feel bad for Marco...in Alaska, where taxes are lower, and he doesn't have to pay for other people. 1,2,3......Awwwwwww, poor Marco.

Kramer Holleran
Kramer Holleran

6615 e apollo is his address apparently. The idiot sent it to me thinking I'd fight him.

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

Still waiting on a "mayonaise monkey" explanation. What does that even mean?

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

Let him continue. He is awarded the same rights to free speech, as idiotic and thought-provoking as may believe it is. Let him show us who the real problem is.

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

In return, I hope you are denied all of the precious rights and opportunities that I feel don't suit you because I don't like your appearance as a human.

Go-Getter ML
Go-Getter ML

That's because they'll be to preoccupied paying off student loans... Not me tho!

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

I deserve it, huh? So if I read your words correctly, one should be judged on appearance, not value. Makes perfect sense to a bigot like yourself. Cone down here and get your family to stop waking me at 7am with their leafblowers.

Caroline Maul
Caroline Maul

The only way I can see that the real estate market calms down is if we get a 3rd party president in 2016 and a few more 3rd party law makers at the federal level who can say F.U. to the superpacs...you can't buy me..you can't own me, and they finally do the work that no Republican or Democratic politician would ever do as POTUS and get this economy running fair and square again, and that includes making a lot of controversial budget cuts. We have to get rid of these lawmakers who are funding the super military complex and corporation welfare, because it is way way more then what is being give to the poor. It's comparing apples to asteroids and I'm sick and tired of how these lawmakers think we are too dumb to know the difference. Cant' trust either majority party anymore.

Caroline Maul
Caroline Maul

Randy, here in STV there are subdivisions with HUGE banners that read, WE LOVE/WELCOME OUR CANADIAN HOMEOWNERS. They buy in CASH and are these Realtors best clients, that they are even willing to create for them their own banners. It's not a rumor either...heard it straight from a Realtor. Now, it's not so for every Providence in Canada...so ppl from Nova Scotia are not making out as say ppl from Alberta, who are making out the best....all from the Keystone XL Pipeline, and it's destroying the American ecosystem and environment year by year.

Caroline Maul
Caroline Maul

Marco Cruz with the non tax paying illegal name should know...right??? You sound as stupid as your cousin, Ted.

Caroline Maul
Caroline Maul

Keep in mind that when a door closes, so opens a window. Eventually the right house meant for you will come when the timing in the Universe is right for you.

Brandon Garrabrants
Brandon Garrabrants

Marco: What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

Kramer Holleran
Kramer Holleran

You keep saying "peckerwood" Marco Cruz, only telling us that you ran to Alaska after spending some time in an AZ prison. Congratulations, your asshole has seen more culturally than your eyes have.

Kramer Holleran
Kramer Holleran

Marco Cruz. You keep showing your stupidity.. STAHP.

Marco Cruz
Marco Cruz

Its more like a meth head peckerwood with all kinds of metal n shit pierced in its face and filling its teeth...kinda looks like you. Thank god youre being prevented from buying a home, i hope it stays an issue for you, cuz you deserve it. Funny, all you foolz have to fall back on is a fake ass profile thats about as real as you are when youre online. Keep trying though, and keep counting your victories in online facebook posts. Who knows, maybe one day your boss will see all the thumbs up you received and give you a raise!

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

Is that anything like a "guacamole gringo"?

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

Can you help us understand what a "mayonnaise monkey" is?

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

Isnt Alaska touching Canada? My geography education tells me yes.

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

I'm all for anyone that can, to buy a house. What sucks is when is when you can, but someone with more money outbids you. Yes, it's capitalism, and yes it's working as designed. However, it sucks being on the end of things where you do everything correctly and still getting fucked out of a future.

Nique Carey
Nique Carey

The house pictured, is my nextdoor neighbor, in North Scottsdale. Of course these homes arent being sold to that demographic. They're an acre+ and start at half a mil. Arizona has much better housing opportunities.

Kramer Holleran
Kramer Holleran

Marco Cruz, please get on a boat on Deadliest Catch and get tossed overboard, you moronic dipshit.

Marco Cruz
Marco Cruz

Im surprised no one has blamed arpaio yet. Then again, arpaio would kick some maple licking cannucks out the fuck of az and free up some real-estate. Fuckin pale faced monkeys are just as much a drain on the US economy as my border brothers.

Caroline Maul
Caroline Maul

No problem. I'm not against foreigners from buying homes in America, but ppl need to take a look around and they'll find that in many areas, we don't have enough *affordable* supply to meet the demand, and that's why they are not buying. Most ppl who have jobs in Phx/Scottsdale do not want to commute from Pinal county, for instance, just so they can get something that they can afford. Commute out of STV or Maricopa sucks. Also, Phx is the only Meto city in the entire U.S. w/o an advanced intercity transportation rail or subway system. Light rail is a major joke and only serves Phx-Tempe and does not really service multiple points of location. It's nothing compared to BART in the Bay Area of MARTA in Atlanta. Phx is actually, very backwards.

Marco Cruz
Marco Cruz

Lol this peckerwood believes everything he reads on the net, let alone new times...fuckin truck. Go suck on a prickly pear you fuckin peckerneck mayonnaise monkey.

Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones

The four homes I placed bids on were outbid by...you guessed it, a Canadian investor, and I'm not the only person this has happened to, so I'm not just taking stabs in the dark here.

Caroline Maul
Caroline Maul

the sales of single family homes below $150k falling so low is because there are fewer of those homes available. Like it or not, we are heading back into another bubble, and those cash sales are being pushed by the Canadians who are being paid generous sums of money for their land mineral rights back in Canada to be fracked for oil and natural gas, esp for that Keystone XL pipeline...it has made many thousands of Canadians millionaires overnight, and they are all flocking to the warm U.S. states to buy 2nd and 3rd homes in cold hard cash right out from under the noses of hard working Americans, and they get preferences over your FHA loans because they are buying with cash. I mean it's pretty comical...all these Arizona mother f'kers do is complain about the Mexicans, but we're being bought out by Canadians and if not them, we have Asian groups coming in and buying up homes too, sometimes by entire small towns. And all it does is continue to drive the housing markets up on the working class citizens. It sucks ass big time. You don't need to be a citizen to buy a home in the USA.

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