Will Comprehensive Immigration Reform Lead to a Whole Lot of New Democrats?

Categories: Morning Poll
citizenship-vote.jpg
Rick Reinhard via Flickr


As you can imagine, hardly any unauthorized Latino immigrants in this country are hip to the Republican Party's platform, according to polling research.

There's a common thought out there that providing a pathway to citizenship for 11 million unauthorized immigrants, many of them Latino, will create many more Democratic voters than Republican voters.

See also:
-Just 4 Percent of Unauthorized Latino Immigrants Say They're Republicans

Just 4 percent of unauthorized Latinos polled by the Pew Research Center last year say they "identify" with the Republican Party, compared to 31 percent for Democrats.

Latino permanent residents also favored the Democratic Party, 49-8, and foreign-born U.S. citizens chose the Democratic Party over the Republican Party by a 54-11 margin.

"This current snapshot shows that unauthorized Hispanic immigrants also lean more Democratic than Republican -- though to a lesser degree than Hispanic immigrants who are currently eligible to vote," Pew's analysis says. "And it's uncertain whether these unauthorized immigrants, many of whom are currently unaffiliated, would adopt similar political affiliations and voting patterns if given the chance to naturalize."

What do you think? Are lawmakers considering giving authorized status to a whole lot of Democrats-in-waiting?

Cast your vote below:


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Follow Matthew Hendley on Twitter at @MatthewHendley.



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37 comments
jonnyquest
jonnyquest topcommenter

Does anyone else see an inconsistency with the Obama administration deporting more undocumented than any other administration on the one hand and pushing for immigration reform on the other?

Susan Rastella
Susan Rastella

I am hoping any changes in immigration policy will lead to education, informed voters. Once it i recognized that the two party system is unnecessary people will be obligated to look at the person, not the party. That could only result in better choices by voters and then we all win.

valleynative
valleynative topcommenter

Another way to look at it is that it was before the Democrats started giving away free room and board and education and health care to anybody who can't afford it.   First generation immigrants understand the concept of working for a living, but everybody likes free stuff, except those of us who have to pay for it.

wtf....
wtf....

Latinos used to identified themselves more with the Republican party back in the day...until it was hijacked by the old white angry mob (Tea Party) 

teknik
teknik

How long until they get to vote again?  Maybe the kids they have here will grow up to vote.

When will people realize that the party politics game is all trickery and the man behind the curtain changes very little.   While the GOP wont admit it Obama has been busy working away and deporting people in mass.  

JohnQ.Public
JohnQ.Public

You keep espousing this "giving away free stuff" argument, which is a straw man argument and only serves to be self-deceiving for those that make it.  It allows those who make it to bury their head in the sand and ignore the real issues - the bigotry, the prejudice, the xenophobia, the hurtful rhetoric.  It's like saying, another way to look at the earth is that its flat because when I stand here and look out to the horizon I can't see that it's curved.  Yes, another way to look at this issue is that the Democrats just "give everything away to everyone" - but that would be an incorrect way to look at it.  Of course, the Republicans can keep deceiving themselves into believing that the issue is the Democrats "give away free stuff," but if they do they will continue to ignore the real issues and continue to alienate the Latino community.

hapstone2
hapstone2

@teknik yes Tek - and they been returning en masse ..  ready to admit that ???

valleynative
valleynative topcommenter

@JohnQ.Public vilification is not an argument.  The Democrats buy votes of the poor and ignorant with entitlements.  It's obvious if you're willing to see it.

I recognize that there is bigotry in the nation, but it's not what motivates most Republicans.  Fiscally conservative people don't want to add a lot of people who aren't qualified for well-paying jobs to the voter base.


jeanjb
jeanjb

@hapstone2 @teknik border crossings are down.......unless you don't read the news and listen to rush!

JohnQ.Public
JohnQ.Public

@valleynative  Some days I wish I was one of them.

JohnQ.Public
JohnQ.Public

"The majority of voters, particularly those with low education levels, have no idea what values individual politicians really have, and find politics confusing, like calculating percentages"   And you know this from what statistically valid research?  Or is this just more prejudice and bias that is completely unsupported by fact?

I could say the same thing about Republican voters - "If they vote at all, they don't put a lot of deep thought into it, and tend to vote based on superficial issues such as who promises not to take their guns away."  I could say that, but I suspect that I would be very wrong because, as I posited above, most voters on both sides of the political spectrum use a more complicated calculation than that to choose who they vote for.

valleynative
valleynative topcommenter

@JohnQ.Public 

Why do you feel the need to attribute an observable phenomenon to a few whackos among the many who have pointed it out?

The people I know who are receiving entitlements have no qualms about admitting that they will vote for Democrats because they want the free stuff to continue, and hope it will increase.  After all, those evil rich Republicans deserve to pay for their room and board.

The majority of voters, particularly those with low education levels, have no idea what values individual politicians really have, and find politics confusing, like calculating percentages.

If they vote at all, they don't put a lot of deep thought into it, and tend to vote based on superficial issues such as who's paying their rent.

JohnQ.Public
JohnQ.Public

@valleynative I think that you're last comment was your only accurate one - there are too many other factors involved in motivating people to vote in a certain way to be able to say that "giving stuff away" is the primary reason people vote Democratic.  I think that the narrative created by Rush Limbaugh/Sean Hannity/Bill O'Reilly that people (primarily minorities and poor people) vote Democrat because the Democratic party promises to "give them free stuff" is bull.  It is nothing but a narrative designed to demean, discredit and de-legitimize the voting motivation of those on the other side of the political spectrum.  It's underlying theme is that those that vote Democratic are too stupid (because the poor and minority of course) to independently evaluate candidates and vote for those candidates the best share their values so they are left voting for candidates who promise to "give them free stuff."  Yes there may be some that vote that way, but there are plenty of other motivations and the Democratics "give away free stuff" narrative is a biased, prejudiced and down-right insulting one.  BTW, like you, I don't belong to either party. 

JohnQ.Public
JohnQ.Public

@hapstone2 I gave you the statistics I was relying on - care to share yours or is that just an assumption used to support a preconceived bias.  And Welfare itself doesn't constitute teh full range of federal and state entitlements.  Include SNAP, Medicaid Enrollment and other entitlement programs to complete the picture (I couldn't quickly find a recent Welfare stat which is why I only included SNAP and medicaid in my comment).

hapstone2
hapstone2

@JohnQ.Public This is the apple orange shell game   and does not lend itself to the context to which VN is suggesting - isolating all the qualifying 'federal money: and isolating money spent on WELFARE directly to individuals changes this dramatically and indeed is greatest in Blue -States. 

valleynative
valleynative topcommenter

@JohnQ.Public  

Again, the fact that states that get the most free stuff don't vote Democrat does NOT dispute my statement.

Statistics are not that simple.

Trends at the individual voter level don't necessarily translate to how the State as a whole will vote.  There are too many other factors involved.

 

JohnQ.Public
JohnQ.Public

@valleynative: I certainly agree with your last sentence, but disagree with your underlying thesis that people receiving entitlements are more likely to vote Democrat than Republican.  The info I provided demonstrates that.  WV voted for Romney/Ryan over Obama/Biden by a margin of 62% to 35% despite  the fact that almost 20% of their population receives food stamp assistance and 23% is on Medicaid.

Obama advocated for and ran on a platform to increase Medicaid funding and eligibility and did so under the Affordable Care Act yet lost the state by a wide margin.  Romney/ Ryan ran very clearly on a platform to reduce entitlements.  Those facts alone strongly suggest that the motivation to vote Democrat or Republican is not closely related to "giving away free stuff" or "taking away free stuff."

hapstone2
hapstone2

@JohnQ.PublicThat means that some states are getting a lot more than they put in, and vice versa. The states that contributed more in taxes than they got back in spending were more likely to have voted for Obama in 2008 and were more likely to be largely urban. (There are some clear exceptions: For instance, New Mexico, a rural, Democratic state, gets more federal money per tax dollar than any other state.)

valleynative
valleynative topcommenter

@JohnQ.Public 

By my logic, we can not say that any states would have voted in a certain way.  Statistical analysis is FAR from being that simple.  We can only say that people receiving entitlements are more likely to vote Democrat than Republican.

I'm not a Republican.  I don't like their politics of pandering to religious idiots, either.

JohnQ.Public
JohnQ.Public

Well then the Dems are doing a poor job of it, aren't they? The 5 states receiving the most food stamp dollars (as a proxy for all federal entitlements) and the way they've voted in presidential elections in the last 4 election cycles are:

1. New Mexico - Dem, Dem, Repub Dem

2. West Virginia - Repub, Repub, Repub, Repub

3. Mississippi - Repub, Repub, Repub, Repub

4. Hawaii - Dem, Dem, Dem, Dem

5. Alabama - Repub, Repub, Repub, Repub

By your logic, with all those poor folks on food stamps in WV, MS and AL, those 4 states would have all voted Dem in all 4 elections because the votes Dems bought and paid for those votes with food stamps and other entitlements.  So clearly your theory that Dems are successful because they buy votes through entitlements is not as accurate as you'd like it to be.  Again, nothing but self-deception by Repubs so that they can avoid facing the real issues facing their party.

JohnQ.Public
JohnQ.Public

@hapstone2 I'd love to respond to your comments but honestly, you are so all over the place that I'm having difficulty understanding what point you're trying to make.  Are you for or against immigration?  I think that you're against it but you're so all over the place that its hard to tell.  I really do wish I understood the point that you are trying to make, but you lost me three posts ago.  Oh, and those stats I was hoping you'd provide - I see a lot of grandstanding and pontification (I think) but no real information or data (and no, I'm not going to go looking for the stats to back up whatever point it is you are trying to make)..

hapstone2
hapstone2

@JohnQ.Public John that is a rhetorical question based on the fact that the Mexican govt. has done nothing to retain these citizens ... yet in the other breath touts it's economic growth and development and infra structure development - yet these Mexican citizens have no place in it  ... why not ?

Mexico places no value on them ... as a "human rights " guy that should be your first question ... whats wrong with these Mexicans that Mexico places no value on them - certainly not enough knowing there are immigration laws to ease the visa process for them - leaving them to cartelistas and coyotes if there is a difference wheres you verve now. 

There is plenty of water at the entry points and food and shelter - there is no need for them to trek through the desert is there really Yet their own government insists on it ? 

You are a sham John  .. a pretender ... a con man - a bs'er  ...human rights ?  Not with that blood on your hands. 

There was a demonstration today re: "raids" - might I point out there were no immigrant raids in Mexico but then these were Mexicans there wouldn't have been a problem anyway would there. 

hapstone2
hapstone2

@JohnQ.Public You may have better luck at the DMV or Federal Buildings or State Bidg looking for blacks - but that doesn't explain the absence of young black men and women in the work force - I'll let you post that % of unemployment  - so I just don"t see a real "human rights" paradigm at work on this side of the border John. I see a f''ing disaster ....

hapstone2
hapstone2

@JohnQ.Public Why don't you run this demo graph - who are they where are they coming from and what are they bring with them? 

Then run this high school drip outs - then run first year second year college drop out ... these will be your competitors for lower skilled jobs.., and those that don't find work who is going to feed them house them and provide medical care ... 

now run college grads per year ... those are the competitors for YOUR job  ... so where a person may have worked till say 60 - 40-45  will become the new 60 ... where then will say YOU  go - again competing  for the lower skilled jobs 

 and do me one more favor - drive the valley - look at the landscapers, and trades people drop by the fast food stores and restaurants tell me how many blacks do you see working ...in proportion to other ethnics ... where are all the black young men and women ........ 

hapstone2
hapstone2

@JohnQ.Public  Well yes can do something about those xenophobes "over there" by channeling all that "faux" human rights energy to where the REAL human rights problem is ... 

JohnQ.Public
JohnQ.Public

They are "defective" - aren't they? (your word, not mine).

And since I probably can't do much about the zenophobes on the other side of the border but can try to do something about the xenophobes on this side of the border, I'll focus on the xenophobes I can potentially have an impact on.

hapstone2
hapstone2

@JohnQ.Public Every stream has source John - regardless of what's happening on  this side of the border - they are crossing from the other side  ... worry less about the xenophobes on this side and more on the xenophobes on the other side ... again I ask you:  what is wrong with these Mexicans that Mexico doesn't want them ...??? 

valleynative
valleynative topcommenter

@jeanjb

And yet authorities are surprised by the larger number of dead they find, which would seem to indicate that their estimates of crossings is very low.

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