Vernon Parker Wouldn't Need a Miracle to Defeat Kyrsten Sinema

Vernon-Parker.jpg
Republican congressional candidate Vernon Parker.
Despite the fact that some folks from out of town are calling the congressional race in CD-9 for Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, it's certainly not over, and Republican Vernon Parker wouldn't need a miracle to win.

While Sinema's up by several thousand votes at the moment, there are thousands more to count, between provisional ballots and early-voting ballots dropped off at polls.

See also:
-Ann Kirkpatrick Called Winner in CD-1; Kyrsten Sinema and Martha McSally Sit on Leads
-Arizona's Congressional Elections: Good, Bad, and Ugly
-Kyrsten Sinema, Vernon Parker and Why Top-Two Was and Is a Dumb Idea
-Can Kyrsten Sinema Win in Congressional District 9?

It's been said that attorneys for both sides are getting involved, and based on some estimates we can make, this race could come down to the last handful of ballots tabulated.

All of CD-9 is within Maricopa County, so that makes it a bit easier to guesstimate how many votes remain uncounted in the race.

While analyzing the chances of Sheriff Joe Arpaio-challenger Paul Penzone and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Richard Carmona still have to win their races, our colleague Stephen Lemons calculates that 1,347,519 voters turned out county-wide in this election. That would equate to a voter turnout of 73 percent -- consistent with Maricopa County Recorder Helen Purcell's estimate, which was between 70 and 75 percent.

Assuming that CD-9 voters turned out in a similar number to the rest of the county, we can guess that around 256,049 of CD-9's 350,330 voters actually cast ballots in the Parker/Sinema race.

Since 169,753 votes have already been tabulated in the race, we can estimate that about 86,296 votes remain to be counted, between provisional ballots and early-voting ballots that ended up being a bit late.

Long story short: Sinema's current lead is 2,715 votes, and it's possible that about 86,000 more votes are waiting to be counted.

Now, if our estimate of county-wide turnout, our assumption about district turnout, and one additional assumption -- that third-party candidates will continue to get about 6 percent of the vote -- are similar to the actual result, then the scenario Parker needs to win isn't incredibly unlikely.

If Parker lands 49 percent of the estimated remaining votes, and Sinema gets 45 percent, Parker would win by an estimated 737 votes.

If just 1 percentage point were to go the other way -- Parker getting 48 percent, and Sinema getting 46 percent -- Sinema would win by an estimated 989 votes.

Again, this isn't a fact. This is an example of how close this race could be, and how things could go, if certain things held true. And if you bet us a dollar that these numbers are going to be off, you'd have an extra dollar in the coming days.

Or, you can sit back, relax, and wait for the actual results.


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16 comments
lewjody
lewjody

Will someone please tell Mr. Obama that District-9 is STILL counting their votes???

 

Trent Rhodes
Trent Rhodes

I think Sinema will win, but I wouldn't concede yet if I were him.

theclassglobal
theclassglobal

Dorazio Consulting

211 East 81st Street

New York, NY 10028     USA

DorazioConsulting@yahoo.com

 

November 9, 2012

 

To The World Press:

 

These are opinions based on known facts.

 

The well-known BRAINIAC BOMBSHELL "lawyer" and ASU Professor DR. KYRSTEN SINEMA (www.KyrstenSinema.com) - an admitted PRADA SOCIALIST (aka COMMIE RAT) - has been elected to the U.S. SENATE in SANDLAND.SInema's mentor MIUCCIA PRADA is an ITALIAN fashion designer and CARD-CARRYING ITALIAN COMMUNIST. Her bio is inserted below.    Our ASU colleague VINNIE sent the attached SINEMA PHOTO, appropriately tagged "Kyrsten666."  We urge ALL MALES NOT TO BE ENTICED by the DEVILISH SINEMA, who likes GIRLS anyway (she's an admitted BI-SEXUAL aka PART-TIME LESBO).  Men, you won't get to first base with her - give up.     Sinema will now act as an OBEDIENT DESERT LAPDOG for fellow COMMIES BARRY SOETORO aka OBAMA and JANET NAPOLITANO, among others.The foxy K GAL FROM TUCSON, who looks like those "Law and Order" bimbo "prosecuters," will now work overtime to KEEP OUR BORDERS OPEN to as MANY ILLEGAL THUGS AS POSSIBLE.More to come.

 

The JIM DORAZIO Team

 

Miuccia Prada, in full Miuccia Bianchi Prada, original name Maria Bianchi   (born May 10, 1949, Milan, Italy), Italian fashion designer best known as the head designer at the Prada fashion house. She is re

nowned for utilizing minimalist designs to achieve a traditional style with modern influence.

The second of three children, Maria Bianchi was born into an affluent family. Her father, Luigi (“Gino”) Bianchi, headed a company that manufactured putting-green mowers. Her mother, Luisa, was an heiress to the luxury-goods company then known as Fratelli Prada (“Prada Brothers”), of which Luisa became head in 1958. Initially an aspiring politician, Maria earned a Ph.D. in political science (1973) from the University of Milan, where her ideologies drifted increasingly towardfeminism and left-wing politics. She became a member of the Italian Communist Party, regularly distributing flyers at demonstrations, and studied for about five years to become a mime at the Teatro Piccolo (“Little Theatre”) in Milan.

Bianchi joined the Prada family business in 1970, managing one of its two remaining stores. In 1978 she succeeded her mother as head of the company—which had by then shrunk to only a single store—and hired as her primary supplier the Italian businessman Patrizio Bertelli, a leather-goods manufacturer whom she had met the previous year at a trade fair where he was selling Fratelli Prada knockoffs. As head designer, she—in heavy collaboration with Bertelli—began working to revive the company. One of her earliest ideas included fashioning a line of unlabeled handbags out of a then unorthodox fabric called Pocono nylon—the durable water-resistant fabric often used to make military tents. However, the line, launched in 1979, was not immediately successful.

In the 1980s Bianchi began to globally expand the company, opening additional stores beginning in 1983 and launching a shoe line in 1984. She also relaunched in 1985 her line of Pocono handbags, redesigned with a gold chain strap and the triangular signature logo that would later become the brand’s trademark. Perhaps because of their resemblance to the more expensive leather Chanel handbags, sales of the Pocono handbags soared and were soon carried by the fashion elite, including actress and fashion model Jerry Hall.

To officially hold the surname of Prada, Bianchi had her mother’s unmarried sister adopt her in the late 1980s and thereafter legally changed her name. In 1987 she wed Bertelli. The following year she debuted to critical acclaim her first ready-to-wear collection, which featured parkas fashioned out of nylon, affording customers durability without sacrificing style. Prada’s progressive ideals were often reflected in her designs, which imparted an understated glamour and a refined elegance that stood in strong opposition to the overt sex appeal of many of the brand’s competitors, prompting a reevaluation of femininity and challenging the industry maxim that only “sex sells.” Clean, simple lines and muted, basic colours were paired with luxurious fabrics and exquisite tailoring to achieve a tasteful look that flattered the figure while preserving modesty. At the close of a decade of excess, Prada’s idea of casual luxury caught on, and the brand quickly became associated with confident, intellectual, and affluent working women.

In the early 1990s Prada continued to expand the brand, launching a perfume line and several spin-off clothing lines including the more affordable Miu Miu (1992), her nickname. In 1993 she founded with Bertelli the PradaMilanoarte, later renamed the Prada Foundation (Fondazione Prada), a nonprofit organization dedicated to the support of various up-and-coming contemporary designers, including architects and artists. In the same year, Prada launched a menswear line, and in 1995 she gained international recognition after top Hollywood actress Uma Thurman wore one of her gowns to the Academy Award ceremony, quickly transforming the brand into an international status symbol.

In 1996 Prada and Bertelli formally merged their respective operations to form Prapar B.V. (later renamed Prada Holding B.V.), a holding company for the Prada group of companies, with Bertelli serving as its chief executive officer. In 1997 she released a line of activewear, Prada Sport, later renamed Linea Rossa (“Red Line”). Two years later Prada and Bertelli initiated a string of high-profile acquisitions—including the Helmut Lang and Jil Sander fashion houses as well as a stake in fashion companies including Fendi—transforming Prada into a multimillion-dollar fashion conglomerate.

By the early 21st century the company’s annual revenues had skyrocketed to more than $1 billion. However, it was also faced with a near equivalent amount of debt, leading Prada and Bertelli to begin liquidating their acquisitions. Prada launched a cosmetics line in 2000 and received the Council of Fashion Designers of America International Award in 2004. Vita Prada (“Life Prada”), an unauthorized biography of Prada by the Italian journalist Gian Luigi Paracchini, was released in 2009.

Jeannette L. NolenBibliographyTable Of ContentsHelp us expand the resources for this topic. Click below to submit new publication for review and accepted updates will be published to the site.Submit a publicationWebsitesTable Of ContentsHelp us expand the resources for this topic. Click below to submit new website for review and accepted updates will be published to the site.Submit a Website

 

donnagratehouse
donnagratehouse

You can't base it solely on the County. The votes are coming from CD9, a moderate Dem leaning district, and provisionals tend to break heavily for Dems. I see no reason to believe Parker will get a higher percentage of the remaining votes. 

David Corpus
David Corpus

I think the State should count all the votes for EVERYTHING and conceding should not matter. The people should decide, not the egos of the candidates.

Gary Waterman
Gary Waterman

I don't know the man and it's not my district but if it's that close...keep counting! The people have spoken with their votes. They deserve to know who actually won.

Chuck Klee
Chuck Klee

I hope so...I can't stand that bitch.

mitchellwachtel
mitchellwachtel

Dr. Sinema has the worst understanding of WWII imaginable; someone wrote that after completing  her Rwanda thesis, she apparently concluded we should have gotten involved militarily earlier. The reason for earlier intervention had nothing eo ipso to do with genocide, but with preventing the conquest of entire continents. Now the Holocaust & the Rape of Nanjing would not have occurred had 1) Germany gotten its tail whipped after the Rheinland militarization & 2) Japan gotten stomped on after the Manchurian incident. Nonetheless, the reason to have done those two things was to prevent continental conquest.  WWII is a fabulous topic. Nazi propaganda is especially fun to watch. Look at this spectacular Nazi explanation for the invasion of Poland!  When you know the real story, this becomes one of the greatest propaganda films in history. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hMflhlXeCNA&feature=g-high-rec&bpctr=1352431059

mitchellwachtel
mitchellwachtel

If she wins, it is vital to warn everyone about her, so that she is not given the power she seeks. Very likely at the top of her list is the release of Sheik Rahman.

Hotchy
Hotchy

The votes really have not been counted! Helen Purcell Lied to everyone about the results on Tuesday to cover her ass!

 

mitchellwachtel
mitchellwachtel

 @donnagratehouse Most likely the left honourable doctor Sinema will indeed win. Nonetheless, vital is a full & fair count to avoid a courtroom battle. Waiting two months for this is not a problem;  the new Congress will not meet until 2013. 

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