President Obama, Mitt Romney "Dead Even" in Arizona, if Poll Is to Be Trusted

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knowyourmeme.com
"Put that in your marijuana pipe and smoke it." -- Some Obama supporter, probably.
According to the latest poll of Arizonans, President Obama's ahead of Mitt Romney by two percentage points, which qualifies as being "dead even."

This poll comes from the Behavior Research Center, which is notably the only polling outfit that's shown an Obama lead in Arizona out of the eight companies that have polled here.

See also:
-Obama Winning Arizona: Not as Dumb of an Idea as People Thought
Obama Winning Arizona Sounds Like a Dumb Idea Again

According to the New York Times' Nate Silver, this polling company "has had good results in the past," but he notes that "even a good polling firm can and will produce an outlying result or two with a sample size (500 people) like that."

That said, Obama's 42-40 lead over Romney includes 13 percent in the "not sure" category, and includes both Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who polled at 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

In addition to Obama's apparent lead, the Behavior Research Center poll shows Richard Carmona with a four-point lead over Congressman Jeff Flake in the U.S. Senate race. Since the margin of error is stated to be 4.4 percent, that's not really a lead, either.

"Thus it must be concluded that Arizona is definitely a battleground state for both the Presidential and the U.S. Senate races and there can be little doubt but that the outcome will be largely dependent on which political party does the best job in turning out its voters and whether the Democrats can hang on to the Latino vote," the pollsters' release says.

Arizona Latinos favor Obama over Romney by 77 to 10 percent, according to these results.

The results also note that Obama's up 46-39 in Maricopa County, and Carmona's up 46-38 in the county.

Results from this poll can be found here, and all other presidential poll results in Arizona can be found here.



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21 comments
NoPenzone
NoPenzone

But according to the real polls, Romney is ahead by a lot.

maxonepercent
maxonepercent

The poll that you are referring to is highly suspect.  First, it only included 500 people, they have not released their methodology either so we really have no idea exactly what kind of voters they polled, for all we know they polled twice as many democrats as republicans.  Also, Obama is not spending any money here, which tells me they already know they have lost the state.

Easkey Stewart
Easkey Stewart

AZ is in play nationally - and the GOP can thank the State's Administration and the issues that drew their attention and our frustration!

Thane.Eichenauer
Thane.Eichenauer

Obama is no more inspiring this time around than he was in 2008.  McCain trumped Obama in 2008 and unless something quite remarkable happens Obama will be defeated soundly in 2012 (at least in Arizona).

Michael Bauser
Michael Bauser

Now I bet Romney REALLY wishes his parents had given him a Spanish name.

Danny Virgil
Danny Virgil

Never discount the blue hairs out of state breaking the law by voting in two states. Polls don't account for them. Bigots voting for bigots.

Michael Harrelson
Michael Harrelson

and its true only if you count dead voters as acorn often does

Michael Harrelson
Michael Harrelson

lol isnt he doing a new series called the voting dead brought to you by ACORN?

Stereolab
Stereolab

The GOP's fast becoming a regional party of the Deep South, white Appalachia, Texas and rural Western states with few electoral votes.  Changing demographics dictate this alone: Arizona is purple and may well flip blue, if not now, soon.

Todd Trent
Todd Trent

Hope the state goes blue. Then Obama can stick his middle finger in her face this time.

Jesse Adams
Jesse Adams

It needs a bit of blue, look at what the red is doing to us

Gloria Nelson
Gloria Nelson

I doubt it's true in this scarlet state, but I would love to see a victory for Carmona, Sinema, and Penzone as well. They're all polling very well!

DNichols
DNichols

According to the Arizona Republican Party President Obama will be victorious in 2012!

 

The Republican Party has a local T.V. advertisement running to try to keep Career Politician Jeff Flake in his Throne: it says of Flakes opponent:  Quote: "Rich Carmona will answer to President Obama, not to us".

 

This is the Arizona Republican Party addmitting in advance that their Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney will FAIL!

 

They don't even mention the possibility that Rich Carmona could answer to Romney.

 

Thank you so much for your honesty Arizona Republican Party.

 

Obama 2012!

 

Go Carmona!

 

Time for a "Change" in Arizona!

 

We need "A Better Arizona".

 

Flake is part of the "Problem".

 

maxonepercent
maxonepercent

 @Stereolab LOL, so they are a "regional party" that controls the majority of the states in the union?  Come on now...

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