Obama Winning Arizona Sounds Like a Dumb Idea Again; Poll Says Prez Down 11

Categories: Horse Race
See also: Obama Winning Arizona: Not as Dumb of an Idea as People Thought

Uh, well, see here...
In April, Arizona State University's Morrison Institute released a poll showing the race between President Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney in Arizona was essentially a "toss up."

The thought of Obama winning Arizona -- which the president's campaign contends is possibly -- suddenly didn't seem like a dumb idea.

Scratch that -- according to the two latest polls in the Obama/Romney Arizona horse race, the Mitt-man is up big.

Rasmussen Reports released its poll last week, showing Romney up 13 in the state.

Yesterday, Public Policy Polling released its most recent poll, showing 52 percent for Romney, 41 percent for Obama, and 7 percent who don't know what they're doing.

If you check out Real Clear Politics' chart, just two polls thus far have shown Obama ahead in Arizona, and they're both from the same place -- Behavior Research Center.

PPP showed a tie between Romney and Obama in February, and single-digit Romney leads in late May and early June.

In this most recent PPP poll, Romney has 46 percent of Arizona's independent voters, compared to 37 percent for Obama.

In the U.S. Senate horse race, Democrat Richard Carmona and Republican Jeff Flake are tied up at 38 percent, with 25 percent still undecided.

PPP didn't even ask about Wil Cardon -- who's running in a primary against Flake -- although Cardon's been down double-digits in every poll released over the course of the election.

We sent an email to PPP yesterday to get the official reason as to why the pollsters didn't include Cardon, but we didn't get a response.

All of the stats from PPP's poll can be found here.

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As far as Rasmussen polls go , throw them in the tolliet.I dont care if OBAMA wins Arizona,as long as he wins the key battle ground states,He will be re-elected.  The open Senate seat  is the Democrats best chance in Arizona since DECONCINNI retired.                                     

eric.nelson745 topcommenter

It's the Mormons who will put Mitt on top.  Ya know, AZ was a Mormon

paradise before the massive in-migration that basically began with the

start of WWII.  Yep, before then AZ was all Indians, Mexicans and



This is not a surprise.  Arizona is controlled by those of the three R affiliation.  (i.e. Retirees, rednecks and retards.) Otherwise we wouldn't be in the mess we're in and have a legislature that comes up with the most bizarre laws imaginable. (For examples, see a list of the almost 400 new laws that just took effect.)






"Yesterday, Public Policy Polling released its most recent poll, showing 52 percent for Romney, 41 percent for Obama, and 7 percent who don't know what they're doing."


Don't you mean 41% percent for Obama and 59% who don't know what they're doing?


As to the Senate race,

1) Carmona hasn't aired any ads (at least, I haven't seen any), and yet his favorability and polling continues to improve, not worsen.

2) Until very recently, Carmona was consistently trailing by double digits to Flake, but within the margin of error against Cardon. But the more Cardon and Flake air their attack ads aimed at each other, the more I think voters are getting tired of it.

3) Whoever the eventual Republican nominee is will have a tough time going after Carmona on policy, personality or past. Carmona definitely has a real shot to win the seat for Democrats.


No poll with Cardon because Carmona does worse against him than against Flake.  Why would you bring that up if you want Carmona to win.  Cardon is more formidable at this point against Carmona than Flake.


 @eric.nelson745 Mormons constitute 4% of Arizona's population, a little less than Blacks.  "It's the Mormons who will put Mitt on top" makes about as much sense as "It's the Blacks who will put Obama on top."Both Mormons and Blacks are small minorities.



 Cite your source for "Carmona does worse against him than against Flake.""  I'd be interested to see that poll, if it actually exists.


 @EdAiho That's hilarious...and patently false. When polls have matched up Cardon and Flake against Carmona, Cardon always has done far worse. Add to that the fact that Cardon is still down at least 22 points to Flake in the most recent poll, and balloting begins today, we can already begin to write the small historical footnote that Cardon's candidacy will occupy.  

eric.nelson745 topcommenter

 @bobunf Negative.  5.45% as of 2010.  Enough to

tip any balance.  Nothing wrong with that.

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