Joe Arpaio Up in Two GOP Polls, and Why His Actions Belie Both
Paul Penzone's secret weapon, one not captured by Republican pollsters: Adios Arpaio
Before you review the results of two new GOP polls that have Sheriff Joe Arpaio in the lead against his Democratic challenger Paul Penzone, ask yourself this question: Is Arpaio acting like a front-runner way ahead of his rival?
-Joe Arpaio's Lead Drops to 4.7 Points Over Paul Penzone, as Arpaio Channels a Corpse
-Joe Arpaio on the Run from Paul Penzone, Mike Stauffer the Goat in New Poll (w/Update)
-"Tough" Sheriff Joe Arpaio Let a Murderer Go to Kill Again
-Joe Arpaio's Fantasy Ad Targeting Paul Penzone (Video)
-Joe Arpaio Creates His Own Version of What Happened in 2003 Altercation Between Paul Penzone and His Ex-Wife
Moreover, would a front runner with a commanding lead, as is suggested by both a poll done by Arpaio's professional bag-carrier Chad Willems, and by another Republican firm, Public Opinion Strategies, be throwing hundreds of millions of dollars into a desperate, deceptive ad attacking the other guy in the race?
Would a candidate with a 14 to 15 point lead need to invest in a series of campaign ads re-introducing himself as a warm and fuzzy sheriff with a heart?
As reported by Mike Sunnucks over at the Phoenix Business Journal and by Laurie Roberts over at the Arizona Republic, Willems says he has a poll showing a 15 point lead for Arpaio, 45 to 30 percent, as of October 11.
Public Opinion Strategies apparently has a poll claiming a 14 point lead for Maricopa County's snarling, bulbous-nosed autocrat, 47 to 33 percent over Penzone, as of the waning days of September
These numbers seems to contradict the Penzone poll issued last week, showing Penzone just 4.7 percent behind Arpaio.
Likely, the tusker polls are coming out now because Arpaio needs to project an image of strength as the sheriff's contest races toward the end of the first full week of early voting.
Yet Arpaio is acting as if the Penzone poll is the most accurate. On one hand, this is just smart politics on Joe's part. But it also highlights the essential weakness of Arpaio's campaign, one wounded by the multiple scandals that have enveloped his fifth corrupt term in office.
Both Sunnucks and Roberts make good points in their analyses.